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Defining Success in Ukraine

Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Adviser, has expressed the view that 2025 could be the time for Ukraine to once again mount a counter-offensive against Russian troops. Given the strategic math, that would be a serious mistake.

NEW YORK – Three months ago, I wrote a column titled “Will Ukraine Survive?” The answer (thankfully) for the next year is “yes,” owing to Ukraine’s willingness to fight and sacrifice and the resumption of substantial US military aid.

At the same time, Russia has launched a new offensive in the northeast that threatens Kharkiv (Ukraine’s second-largest city), is girding for a protracted war, and has largely reconstituted its forces. This raises an important question: With the new tranche of aid in hand, what should Ukraine and its backers in the West seek to achieve? What should constitute success?

Some answer that success should be defined as Ukraine recovering all of its lost territory, to re-establish its 1991 borders. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has expressed the view that 2025 could be the time for Ukraine to once again mount a counter-offensive against Russian troops.

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