American and Chinese policymakers have grown increasingly convinced that China will eventually overtake the US as the world’s largest economy, fueling expectations of an inevitable clash between the two rival powers. But these predictions fail to account for China’s rapidly aging population.
MADISON, WISCONSIN – Chinese President Xi Jinping recently sought to assure a bipartisan delegation of US senators that China and the United States could still avoid a military confrontation despite the rising tensions between them. “The Thucydides Trap,” he said, “is not inevitable.”
The term “Thucydides Trap,” a reference to the ancient Greek historian’s account of the Peloponnesian War, was coined by political scientist Graham Allison to describe the seemingly unavoidable conflict that arises when an emerging power such as China challenges an established hegemon like the United States.
Allison argued that China will eventually overtake the US as the world’s largest economy, a notion bolstered by Chinese government economists who predict that the country’s GDP will be twice as large as America’s by 2030 and three times as large by 2049. Such forecasts have fueled strategic anxiety among many US politicians and scholars wary of China’s growing economic clout and geopolitical aspirations.
MADISON, WISCONSIN – Chinese President Xi Jinping recently sought to assure a bipartisan delegation of US senators that China and the United States could still avoid a military confrontation despite the rising tensions between them. “The Thucydides Trap,” he said, “is not inevitable.”
The term “Thucydides Trap,” a reference to the ancient Greek historian’s account of the Peloponnesian War, was coined by political scientist Graham Allison to describe the seemingly unavoidable conflict that arises when an emerging power such as China challenges an established hegemon like the United States.
Allison argued that China will eventually overtake the US as the world’s largest economy, a notion bolstered by Chinese government economists who predict that the country’s GDP will be twice as large as America’s by 2030 and three times as large by 2049. Such forecasts have fueled strategic anxiety among many US politicians and scholars wary of China’s growing economic clout and geopolitical aspirations.